Kemri-Wellcome Trust Research Programme: Identifying sub-national disparities and determinants of under-five mortality in Kenya 1990-2020

Current evidence shows significant declines in U5M across much of the developing world since the late 1990s, however the slowest rates of decline have been in SSA. Differences in the rates of mortality change exist between and within countries with considerable spatial inequalities with regard to the distribution and use of health resources. Improved targeted disease control, effective resource allocation, equity and maximizing impact demands more detailed understanding of sub-national risks, intervention coverage and health outcomes. Only through higher spatial resolution analyses of child mortality will countries be able to unravel the complexities of the recent mortality trends and the barriers to future improved child survival. I will use available spatially indexed data on U5M from census and surveys in Kenya to model the small-area variations in child survival in space and time (1990-2015) at revised units of health planning used by the MoH (Counties). These patterns of mortality risk will then be used within an analytical framework to understand the principal drivers of declining mortality, including specifically changing malaria epidemiology and make predictions for expected outcomes to 2020. Barriers and future intervention-specific needs will be indentified and provide insights into future data needs to meet targets for the SDGs.

Programme: International Intermediate Fellowship

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