Kemri-Wellcome Trust Research Programme: Using interrupted time series analysis to evaluate the impact of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) on pneumonia admissions in Kilifi, Kenya.

Interrupted time series can be used to estimate vaccine efficacy when random assignment is not feasible. In an interrupted time series, a series of observations on the outcome before and after the introduction of an intervention are used to test effects of the intervention. The methodology is able to distinguish the effect of the intervention from those of secular changes, that is, changes that would have happened even in the absence of the intervention. Two statistical methodologies are availab le to estimate the intervention effect in interrupted time series: segmented regression and intervention analysis . I propose to examine the relative performance of each method in terms of bias, variance and mean square error, by simulating monthly admission rates of radiologically-confirmed pneumonia. I will then use the most appropriate method to estimate the impact of PCV10 on the incidence of pneumonia admissions in Kilifi County Hospital. Finally, I will assess the association between household level socio-economic factors and the incidence of admission to hospital with radiologically-confirmed pneumonia. I will use existing data from Kilifi County Hospital, which is linked, to the Kilifi Health Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS), both of which will provide high quality data over a long period of observation.

Programme: International Masters Fellowship

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